Studies on hydrological dynamic of a drained peat basin using time series model

Ayob Katimon, . and Ahmad Khairi Abd Wahab, . and Zulkifli Yusop, . (2003) Studies on hydrological dynamic of a drained peat basin using time series model. [Proceedings Paper]

This paper presents forecasting procedures applied to a long-term stream flow Q and water table WT dynamics of a drained peat basin. These hydrological parameters are among the most dominants controlling factor to the dynamics of reclaimed peat swamps hydrology. The type of time series data used in this study was the mean monthly daily and hourly values. Box and Jenkins time series modelling algorithm for a stationary non-seasonal series. Auto Regressive-Moving-Average ARMA was employed to estimate the best-fitted dynamic model for the study series. Being climatic influenced hydrological parameters with inherent stochastic behavior the series data was treated nonseasonal. Both original and transformed series was investigated to estimate for the best fitted model. To satisfy modelling assumption most of the stream flow series require a natural logarithm transformation. The transformed Qmonthly Qdaily and Qhourly series was best explained by ARMA 1 0 ARMA 1 2 and ARMA 1 0 model respectively. The water table series behaved slightly different. They do not require transformation but differencing was needed. The water table series for the mean monthly daily and hourly was best fitted to ARMA 1 3 1 1 and 1 1 model respectively.

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Abstract

This paper presents forecasting procedures applied to a long-term stream flow Q and water table WT dynamics of a drained peat basin. These hydrological parameters are among the most dominants controlling factor to the dynamics of reclaimed peat swamps hydrology. The type of time series data used in this study was the mean monthly daily and hourly values. Box and Jenkins time series modelling algorithm for a stationary non-seasonal series. Auto Regressive-Moving-Average ARMA was employed to estimate the best-fitted dynamic model for the study series. Being climatic influenced hydrological parameters with inherent stochastic behavior the series data was treated nonseasonal. Both original and transformed series was investigated to estimate for the best fitted model. To satisfy modelling assumption most of the stream flow series require a natural logarithm transformation. The transformed Qmonthly Qdaily and Qhourly series was best explained by ARMA 1 0 ARMA 1 2 and ARMA 1 0 model respectively. The water table series behaved slightly different. They do not require transformation but differencing was needed. The water table series for the mean monthly daily and hourly was best fitted to ARMA 1 3 1 1 and 1 1 model respectively.

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Item Type:	Proceedings Paper
AGROVOC Term:	HYDROLOGY
AGROVOC Term:	DRAINAGE
AGROVOC Term:	FLOODED LAND
AGROVOC Term:	ANALYTICAL METHODS
AGROVOC Term:	TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
AGROVOC Term:	ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
AGROVOC Term:	MALAYSIA
Geographical Term:	MALAYSIA
Depositing User:	Ms. Norfaezah Khomsan
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2025 05:27
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/16128

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