World fertilizer supply and demand: present situation and future outlook

Maene L.M., . (1994) World fertilizer supply and demand: present situation and future outlook. [Proceedings Paper]

This paper begins with a review of the present situation and outlook for fertilizer consumption in the different regions of the world.It continues with International Fertilizer Industry Associations IFA assessments of the supply and demand outlook for the major fertilizers and their raw materials.This is followed by a review of the world agricultural scenario.Finally the assessments are discussed with particular reference to tropical countries.IFA estimates indicate that world fertilizer consumption fell by 4 in 1991/92.A fall of the same magnitude occurred in the 1990/91 period.These falls are largely attributed to reduced consumption in East Europe. Fertilizer consumption in the developing countries especially in Asia continues to increase.Meanwhile world food production is a cause for increasing concern.World cereal production is a cause for increasing concern.World cereal production is estimated to have fallen bu 4 in 1991.Though increased cereal production is expected in 1992 it will be insufficient to replenish stocks.As world grain stocks remain at the lower end of the range during the 1992/93 period FAO considers it necessary to safeguard world food security.Ensuring adequate world food supplies is at the mercy of adverse weather in the major producing regions.World supplies of fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials are expected to be sufficient to satisfy demand in the foreseeable future especially in view of the fall in demand in East Europe and the former USSR.In recent years the trend in fertilizer production shows a shift towards the developing countries at least as far as nitrogen and phosphate are concerned and this is expected to continue.If the increasing populations in tropical countries are to be fed adequately agricultural production must be stepped up and this requires the application of mineral fertilizers in sufficient and correct quantities.In many tropical countries the rate at which nutrients are being removed or lost from the soil is greater than its replacement by mineral fertilizers and organic materials.In the event of a world food crisis the ability of the fertilizer industry to increase its supplies quickly enough is questionable considering that many years of depressed prices have not justified new investment.It takes about three years to bring a new plant on stream.Besides the process of reducing agricultural production in Europe may have gone too far to reverse quickly.North America has flexibility in agricultural production in view of the large of land in reverse i.e set aside but if the crisis were to be triggered by adverse climatic conditions in that region the world food situation would indeed be precarious.

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Abstract

This paper begins with a review of the present situation and outlook for fertilizer consumption in the different regions of the world.It continues with International Fertilizer Industry Associations IFA assessments of the supply and demand outlook for the major fertilizers and their raw materials.This is followed by a review of the world agricultural scenario.Finally the assessments are discussed with particular reference to tropical countries.IFA estimates indicate that world fertilizer consumption fell by 4 in 1991/92.A fall of the same magnitude occurred in the 1990/91 period.These falls are largely attributed to reduced consumption in East Europe. Fertilizer consumption in the developing countries especially in Asia continues to increase.Meanwhile world food production is a cause for increasing concern.World cereal production is a cause for increasing concern.World cereal production is estimated to have fallen bu 4 in 1991.Though increased cereal production is expected in 1992 it will be insufficient to replenish stocks.As world grain stocks remain at the lower end of the range during the 1992/93 period FAO considers it necessary to safeguard world food security.Ensuring adequate world food supplies is at the mercy of adverse weather in the major producing regions.World supplies of fertilizers and fertilizer raw materials are expected to be sufficient to satisfy demand in the foreseeable future especially in view of the fall in demand in East Europe and the former USSR.In recent years the trend in fertilizer production shows a shift towards the developing countries at least as far as nitrogen and phosphate are concerned and this is expected to continue.If the increasing populations in tropical countries are to be fed adequately agricultural production must be stepped up and this requires the application of mineral fertilizers in sufficient and correct quantities.In many tropical countries the rate at which nutrients are being removed or lost from the soil is greater than its replacement by mineral fertilizers and organic materials.In the event of a world food crisis the ability of the fertilizer industry to increase its supplies quickly enough is questionable considering that many years of depressed prices have not justified new investment.It takes about three years to bring a new plant on stream.Besides the process of reducing agricultural production in Europe may have gone too far to reverse quickly.North America has flexibility in agricultural production in view of the large of land in reverse i.e set aside but if the crisis were to be triggered by adverse climatic conditions in that region the world food situation would indeed be precarious.

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Item Type:	Proceedings Paper
Additional Information:	8 ill. 4 tables
AGROVOC Term:	FERTILIZERS
AGROVOC Term:	TECHNOLOGY
AGROVOC Term:	FERTILIZER APPLICATION
AGROVOC Term:	APPLICATION RATES
Geographical Term:	MALAYSIA
Depositing User:	Ms. Norfaezah Khomsan
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2025 05:27
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/16471

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