A statistical forecast of rubber prices

Mohd. Napi Daud, . and Mohd. Yusof Shahabuddin, . A statistical forecast of rubber prices. pp. 69-80. ISSN 0127-7065

This paper illustrates a statistical application of the Box-Jenkins univariate model for forecasting the prices of the various grades of natural rubber (NR). The data for the analysis were based on the monthly average daily f.o.b prices of NR for the period January 1977 to May 1987. The prices of the various grades of rubber were forecasted using a single model comprising of a backward shift operator and two parameters for auto-regressive and moving average respectively. The percentage of absolute errors the measure used to indicate the precision of the estimated price ranged between 2.6488 and 3.3006.

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Abstract

This paper illustrates a statistical application of the Box-Jenkins univariate model for forecasting the prices of the various grades of natural rubber (NR). The data for the analysis were based on the monthly average daily f.o.b prices of NR for the period January 1977 to May 1987. The prices of the various grades of rubber were forecasted using a single model comprising of a backward shift operator and two parameters for auto-regressive and moving average respectively. The percentage of absolute errors the measure used to indicate the precision of the estimated price ranged between 2.6488 and 3.3006.

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Item Type:	Article
AGROVOC Term:	Statistical methods
AGROVOC Term:	Statistical analysis
AGROVOC Term:	Natural rubber
AGROVOC Term:	Grading
AGROVOC Term:	Forecasting
AGROVOC Term:	Stochastic processes
AGROVOC Term:	Variable costs
AGROVOC Term:	Statistical analysis
AGROVOC Term:	Market prices
Geographical Term:	Malaysia
Depositing User:	Ms. Suzila Mohamad Kasim
Last Modified:	28 Apr 2025 05:14
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/23547

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