Demographic strategies of the Russian rural population: intersubjective nonlinearity versus economic viability

Kanishchev, Valery and Lyamin, Sergey and Zhukov, Dmitry (2022) Demographic strategies of the Russian rural population: intersubjective nonlinearity versus economic viability. Pertanika Journal of Social Science and Humanities (Malaysia), 30 (2). pp. 579-604. ISSN 0128-7702

The intersubjective demographic strategies of modern families and settlements appear to be nonlinear, negatively affecting traditional solutions’ efficiency in spurring demographic growth. This study seeks to determine how external circumstances influenced the formation and changes of fundamental collective ideas. The authors present the results from a model of demographic strategies that analyzed 1,544 rural settlements in Central Russia from 1959 to 1989, which was a period of accelerated urbanization and demographic transition. A fractal model was used to reconstruct social intentions. Control factors for each settlement were estimated based on indicators that reflect rural settlements’ material and technical conditions, economic, medical, and social service development levels, and the availability of attractive migration goals. More archaic communities responded to natural growth stimulation in a linear and relatively predictable fashion, but new competencies, needs, and opportunities appeared as communities developed socially and economically. Many counterintuitive effects influenced the evolution of modernized communities. In particular, the migration aspirations of rural youth led to a postponement in births and a drop in the birth rate despite an increased quality of life. An intense migratory influx into hub settlements also contributed to a decrease in the birth rate among the local population.

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Abstract

The intersubjective demographic strategies of modern families and settlements appear to be nonlinear, negatively affecting traditional solutions’ efficiency in spurring demographic growth. This study seeks to determine how external circumstances influenced the formation and changes of fundamental collective ideas. The authors present the results from a model of demographic strategies that analyzed 1,544 rural settlements in Central Russia from 1959 to 1989, which was a period of accelerated urbanization and demographic transition. A fractal model was used to reconstruct social intentions. Control factors for each settlement were estimated based on indicators that reflect rural settlements’ material and technical conditions, economic, medical, and social service development levels, and the availability of attractive migration goals. More archaic communities responded to natural growth stimulation in a linear and relatively predictable fashion, but new competencies, needs, and opportunities appeared as communities developed socially and economically. Many counterintuitive effects influenced the evolution of modernized communities. In particular, the migration aspirations of rural youth led to a postponement in births and a drop in the birth rate despite an increased quality of life. An intense migratory influx into hub settlements also contributed to a decrease in the birth rate among the local population.

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Item Type:	Article
AGROVOC Term:	rural population
AGROVOC Term:	families
AGROVOC Term:	human settlements
AGROVOC Term:	youth
AGROVOC Term:	urbanization
AGROVOC Term:	migration
AGROVOC Term:	economic viability
AGROVOC Term:	birth rate
AGROVOC Term:	demographic transition
AGROVOC Term:	quality of life
Geographical Term:	Russia
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Historical demography, rural population, social simulation
Depositing User:	Ms. Azariah Hashim
Date Deposited:	16 Jun 2026 01:45
Last Modified:	16 Jun 2026 01:45
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/3768

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