Long run versus short run estimates of sustainable yield: a case of small-scale demersal fisheries in Oman

Bose Shekar, . and Yousuf Jaynab Begum, . Long run versus short run estimates of sustainable yield: a case of small-scale demersal fisheries in Oman. pp. 55-75. ISSN 1823-8556

This paper estimates both long- and short-run reference points under equilibrium and non-equilibrium bio-economic models for five commercially important demersal fish species from 1992 to 2016. The non-stationarity of catch-and-effort series the statistical validity and the short-run dynamics of the conventional bio-economic equilibrium models were examined using co-integrating regression along with error-correction mechanism. The key findings are: Firstly catch and effort series are I(1); secondly the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship under the Schaefer and Fox models for each species are observed; thirdly a significant short-run deviation was detected leading to the estimation of reference points under non-equilibrium situation; and fourthly the Friedman Test results (2 with 2 df 6.40) indicated that overall there were significant differences between the MSY results of the three models. Furthermore a pair-wise comparison using a Wilcoxon Signed rank test (Z -2.03 p 0.042) showed that there was a significant difference between the MSY estimates of the Fox and nonequilibrium models only at 5 level. Lastly the equilibrium yield (MSY) for the summed single species model exceeded the aggregate model results by 21.4 and 26.0 for Schaefer and Fox models respectively.

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Abstract

This paper estimates both long- and short-run reference points under equilibrium and non-equilibrium bio-economic models for five commercially important demersal fish species from 1992 to 2016. The non-stationarity of catch-and-effort series the statistical validity and the short-run dynamics of the conventional bio-economic equilibrium models were examined using co-integrating regression along with error-correction mechanism. The key findings are: Firstly catch and effort series are I(1); secondly the presence of long-run equilibrium relationship under the Schaefer and Fox models for each species are observed; thirdly a significant short-run deviation was detected leading to the estimation of reference points under non-equilibrium situation; and fourthly the Friedman Test results (2 with 2 df 6.40) indicated that overall there were significant differences between the MSY results of the three models. Furthermore a pair-wise comparison using a Wilcoxon Signed rank test (Z -2.03 p 0.042) showed that there was a significant difference between the MSY estimates of the Fox and nonequilibrium models only at 5 level. Lastly the equilibrium yield (MSY) for the summed single species model exceeded the aggregate model results by 21.4 and 26.0 for Schaefer and Fox models respectively.

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Item Type:	Article
AGROVOC Term:	Fisheries
AGROVOC Term:	Demersal fisheries
AGROVOC Term:	Fishery management
AGROVOC Term:	Small scale fishing
AGROVOC Term:	Mathematical models
AGROVOC Term:	Regression analysis
AGROVOC Term:	Marine catfish
AGROVOC Term:	Emperor (fish)
AGROVOC Term:	Groupers
AGROVOC Term:	Gilthead seabream
Depositing User:	Mr. AFANDI ABDUL MALEK
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2025 00:54
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/8693

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