Performance of HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT models for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow at Bernam River Basin in Malaysia

Habibu Ismail, . and Md Rowshon Kamal, . and Lai Sai Hin, . and Ahmad Fikri Abdullah, . Performance of HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT models for assessing climate change impacts on streamflow at Bernam River Basin in Malaysia. pp. 1027-1048. ISSN 2231-8526

Hydrological models are reliable tools that have been extensively used for hydrological studies. However the complexity of some of these models has been a major setback which affects their performance. This study compared Hydrologic Engineering Corps Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with most widely applied Soil Water Assessment Tool (ArcSWAT) model and used to assess impacts of climate change on streamflow at Bernam Basin Malaysia for 2010-2039 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 to the baseline period (1976-2005) using an ensemble of ten GCMs under three RCP scenarios (RCPs 4.5 6.0 and 8.5). The models performed satisfactorily. However HEC-HMS performed better compared to ArcSWAT with 0.74 0.71 4.21 and 0.37; and 0.71 0.69 5.32 and 0.31 for R2 NSE PBIAS and RSR respectively during the calibration and validation periods. Future periods suggest a decreasing pattern in streamflow with a higher percentage (5.94) expected for the RCP 8.5 scenario in the late century (2080s) during dry season period. In the wet season streamflow decreases in all future periods except for RCP4.5 where it is expected to increase (0.36). Therefore the Basin may likely experience tremendous pressure in the late century due to low streamflow particularly in dry season months.

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Abstract

Hydrological models are reliable tools that have been extensively used for hydrological studies. However the complexity of some of these models has been a major setback which affects their performance. This study compared Hydrologic Engineering Corps Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) with most widely applied Soil Water Assessment Tool (ArcSWAT) model and used to assess impacts of climate change on streamflow at Bernam Basin Malaysia for 2010-2039 2040-2069 and 2070-2099 to the baseline period (1976-2005) using an ensemble of ten GCMs under three RCP scenarios (RCPs 4.5 6.0 and 8.5). The models performed satisfactorily. However HEC-HMS performed better compared to ArcSWAT with 0.74 0.71 4.21 and 0.37; and 0.71 0.69 5.32 and 0.31 for R2 NSE PBIAS and RSR respectively during the calibration and validation periods. Future periods suggest a decreasing pattern in streamflow with a higher percentage (5.94) expected for the RCP 8.5 scenario in the late century (2080s) during dry season period. In the wet season streamflow decreases in all future periods except for RCP4.5 where it is expected to increase (0.36). Therefore the Basin may likely experience tremendous pressure in the late century due to low streamflow particularly in dry season months.

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Item Type:	Article
AGROVOC Term:	River basins
AGROVOC Term:	Water resources
AGROVOC Term:	Hydrology
AGROVOC Term:	Models
AGROVOC Term:	Climate change
AGROVOC Term:	Streams
AGROVOC Term:	Flow rate
Depositing User:	Mr. AFANDI ABDUL MALEK
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2025 00:55
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/9367

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