Maximising the benefit of domestic and export markets scenario: predicting models for durian production

Fadhilah Yusof, . and Jannatul Ain Jamaluddin, . and Suhana Safari, . and Rozita Mohd Yusof, . and Aimi Athirah Ahmad, . Maximising the benefit of domestic and export markets scenario: predicting models for durian production. pp. 19-31. ISSN 1823-8149

In this decade the Malaysian durian industry is focusing towards meeting the domestic and export market demands. In order to continually supply for both of the markets management of production and marketing need to be strengthened to avoid shortage or surplus of durian fruits. This research is designated to forecast durian production one year in advance (2018) in Peninsular Malaysia using production data from the year 1992 to 2017 and also to quantify the sales volume in both markets to achieve the maximum profit. Forecasting performance of two classical time series methods which are Moving Average (MA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) were compared based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Model with the least value of MAPE is considered the most accurate prediction. The results revealed that SES with alpha 0.9 is the most appropriate model to forecast durian production in Peninsular Malaysia in 2018. Using the forecasted value of SES Linear Programming model was then applied to assess the value of estimated quantity in domestic and export markets to achieve the maximum profit in the following year. Results found that the maximum profit of durian production in Peninsular Malaysia is predicted to be around RM4.5b. In order to achieve this maximum profit the total quantity of domestic and export demands must reach 14 105.93 metric tonnes (MT) and 163 625.07 MT respectively. These findings may help in determining the appropriate volumes to export durian in order to get the best price and maximize profit.

Full text available from: Official URL: http://etmr.mardi.gov.my/Content/ETMR%20Vol.13(201...

Abstract

In this decade the Malaysian durian industry is focusing towards meeting the domestic and export market demands. In order to continually supply for both of the markets management of production and marketing need to be strengthened to avoid shortage or surplus of durian fruits. This research is designated to forecast durian production one year in advance (2018) in Peninsular Malaysia using production data from the year 1992 to 2017 and also to quantify the sales volume in both markets to achieve the maximum profit. Forecasting performance of two classical time series methods which are Moving Average (MA) and Single Exponential Smoothing (SES) were compared based on Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). Model with the least value of MAPE is considered the most accurate prediction. The results revealed that SES with alpha 0.9 is the most appropriate model to forecast durian production in Peninsular Malaysia in 2018. Using the forecasted value of SES Linear Programming model was then applied to assess the value of estimated quantity in domestic and export markets to achieve the maximum profit in the following year. Results found that the maximum profit of durian production in Peninsular Malaysia is predicted to be around RM4.5b. In order to achieve this maximum profit the total quantity of domestic and export demands must reach 14 105.93 metric tonnes (MT) and 163 625.07 MT respectively. These findings may help in determining the appropriate volumes to export durian in order to get the best price and maximize profit.

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Item Type:	Article
AGROVOC Term:	Durian
AGROVOC Term:	Tropical fruits
AGROVOC Term:	Production capacity
AGROVOC Term:	Linear programming
AGROVOC Term:	Imports
AGROVOC Term:	Exports
AGROVOC Term:	Domestic markets
AGROVOC Term:	Market segmentation
AGROVOC Term:	Forecasting
AGROVOC Term:	Profitability
Depositing User:	Mr. AFANDI ABDUL MALEK
Last Modified:	24 Apr 2025 00:55
URI:	http://webagris.upm.edu.my/id/eprint/9590

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